Could the Land Down Under Go Nuclear?

Patrick Porter, a professor of International Security at the University of Birmingham, wrote a thought-provoking article last month where he entertained the idea of Australia acquiring a nuclear weapon.

The geopolitical winds are blowing in unexpected directions as great power competition becomes the norm in international relations now that the unipolar moment of the 1990s is long gone. For many nations, uncomfortable security decisions will need to be made.

Indeed, as the US’s domestic politics spiral out of control and it has to dedicate more resources towards maintaining public order instead of policing the world, most of its allies and strategic partners will begin to entertain different security arrangements. 

For countries living in the backyard of aspiring hegemons like China, the prospect of a nuclear arsenal is tantalizing. For one, nuclear weapons are generally seen as the ultimate tool to secure a state’s sovereignty in  the predatory world of international affairs.  

America is geopolitically privileged, in that it has two massive moats in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and a vast nuclear arsenal to deter potential threats.

Countries like Australia don’t have the same luxuries and will be faced with some intriguing challenges in the ever-changing realm of international relations. For nearly a century, Australia has maintained an alliance with the US and has been one of its most reliable allies as evidenced by their joint participation in conflicts from World War II to the war in Afghanistan.

With the focus on Great Power competition, Australia will likely be ensnared in the US’s new foreign policy focus to confront China. Australia will have a hard choice to make. For starters, Australia and China have significant economic Intercourse.

According to figures from the Observatory of Economic Complexity, China is Australia’s largest trading partner, accounting for $111 billion of Australia’s exports. Likewise, China is Australia’s largest import partner ($52.7 billion). It’s also located quite far from China and does have natural sea barriers. However, China can still exercise geoeconomics coercion and even weaponize its migrants through the use of espionage and other intelligence activities to destabilize Australia. Realist international theory posits that states are in a constant state of security completion and seek to maximize power.

China with its large population, continued economic growth, and rich history as being Asia’s premier power, save for the Opium War and the intervening years of humiliation up until the consolidation of the Chinese Communist Party, will undoubtedly make a play to re-assert itself in its own backyard. It wants no repeat of the humiliating defeats it received at the hands of European powers and Japan throughout the latter half of the 19th century.

Taiwan is one potential flashpoint that Porter mentioned in his article that Australia could find itself dragged into in the event that a conflict between the US and China kicks off over the disputed island nation. Australia may want to sit out from a potential Taiwan conflict for fear of potential economic retaliation from China. However, staying on the sidelines could come at a massive cost with regards to its alliance with the US in the scenario that a Taiwan conflict arises.

Such hypotheticals no longer seem unrealistic in the new world of great power competition. There is the possibility that Australia could find itself isolated for not carrying its weight in a hypothetical Taiwan conflict. Other partners in the region such as India, which does have border disputes with China and concerns about China trying to dominate the Indian Ocean and its immediate backyard, may not be so keen about getting involved in a Taiwan conflict — due to the fact that it does not directly threaten its strategic imperatives.

An isolated Australia would most definitely be worried about a growing China. If China is able to maintain its impressive economic growth, it will undoubtedly use its wealth to build a formidable military machine in an effort to assert its dominance in its region. What’s more, this dominance might not be solely expressed militarily, China could perhaps make an effort to geoeconomically coerce countries in its region. In fact, we’re already witnessing this as Australia and China are immersed in a bitter trade dispute.

All told, Australia could be faced with a situation where it’s isolated and must handle the distinct possibility of an assertive China. To adjust to this new reality, Australia may have to engage in nuclear hedging, where it uses its highly developed economy to build a nuclear program that is civilian in nature but can be militarized should the political circumstances necessitate such action. 

The desire to acquire nuclear weapons is not a crazy proposition. Properly maintained, nuclear weapons offer the ultimate deterrence against predatory nations with their devastating damage. Although Australia is much smaller than China, having a nuclear option could make the prospect of hostile military action on the part of China very costly.

Indeed, Australia would be wise to not briskly develop this arsenal at the moment because of the potential international backlash and the isolation it could face. However, having this option on the table in the medium to long-term could be a wise course of action. The geopolitical environment in 2050 could be a different ball game altogether.

International relations is a cold game of nations looking to maximize power, largely at other countries’ expense. Sure, having more countries with nuclear weapons is not optimal, but for a country like Australia, which is under the US’s nuclear umbrella for now, a nuclear option is a backup plan to consider. There’s no telling what international relations will look like decades from now on. For all we know, the US could be mired in domestic conflict and other upheavals at home that could compromise its ability to project power abroad and fulfill its commitments to protect allies. In this case, countries like Australia could find themselves up a creek without a paddle. Hence, the allure of acquiring a nuclear deterrent.

Time will tell if Australia will consider the nuclear option. It’s perhaps the best insurance policy during a time its neighborhood is becoming more dangerous and it’s protector in the US cannot fulfill its defense commitments.