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alex's avatar

What if the US just tries to do bombing raids to try to kill Maduro and other high level leadership? I don't know enough about Venezuela to know if another good leader would be likely to emerge, or if zog could take power after a successful assassination.

Even if the odds are 50/50, maybe it would be smart for zog to take these odds.

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José Alberto Niño's avatar

Such a scenario would likely propel a major civil conflict IMO. There's lots of criminal elements, paramilitary orgs, and irregular forces that would out-gun any regime change puppet regime the US props up into that scenario.

To really have a secure transition, US would have to put tens of thousands of boots on the ground. It's a complete quagmire in the making. There best case scenario is a Libya situation.

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alex's avatar

It makes sense to me, but from the US government's perspective, what's wrong with the Libya scenario? It would remove one of the world's major anti-zionist governments and it's unlikely that a serious adversary could emerge in the aftermath. Additionally, it would keep Venezuela poor.

Maybe the biggest downside is optics and more people coming to hate the US.

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José Alberto Niño's avatar

I think the US has entered a nihilistic burn up the entire chessboard phase in its geopolitical agenda, where it doesn't even give fuck about regime change but rather is more focused on regime destruction.

However, an intervention in Venezuela could really galvanize the Latin American Left, which has actually been kind of dormant or somewhat pacified since the end of Cold War. A big form of blowback could occur where many anti-American leftist movements could easily pop up and start making stronger pacts with BRICS countries.

That's one reason why DC still sticks with gay ops and covert operations and doesn't really do full-scale invasions any longer in Latin America. Any kind of invasion that ends in a disaster could give a massive shot in the arm to anti-American elements across the Western Hemisphere. In a multipolar environment where they could be receiving economic and military aid from China, Russia, etc. , such forces could really give Uncle Sambostein headaches.

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alex's avatar

I hope you're right about the Latin American left. One of the things that concerns me, is that the US doesn't have to make the population pro-America, they just have to make the population anti-Maduro. I could see them trying to do this via an ad campaign on youtube, google, or other US-controlled websites. I hope the latin americans have the discipline not to fall for this.

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Prince Spaghetti Day's avatar

Jewish rule is inherently unstable, and fucking infuriating. But, if you see all geopolitical moves in the world with a jewish lens, predictions become easier and more accurate.

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