Loss of oil due to war in the Middle-east is one problem, but there might be a more serious problem. We are past the peak of oil production, so there will be less of it all the time, and it will be of lower quality (more expensive, less energetic). There will be a race, or competition, or war, to acquire what remains. The losing countries will collapse first. Neither is there any viable substitute, since the alternatives aren’t energetic enough.
Loss of oil due to war in the Middle-east is one problem, but there might be a more serious problem. We are past the peak of oil production, so there will be less of it all the time, and it will be of lower quality (more expensive, less energetic). There will be a race, or competition, or war, to acquire what remains. The losing countries will collapse first. Neither is there any viable substitute, since the alternatives aren’t energetic enough.