The Failure of Transactional Diplomacy in the Israel-Palestine Conflict

Blood and soil can't be underestimated in geopolitical struggles.

On March 18, 2025, Israel launched its latest attacks on Gaza, effectively ending a nearly two-month ceasefire that went into effect on Jan. 19.

The Israeli military conducted extensive strikes on targets across the Gaza Strip, including Gaza City, Khan Younis, and Rafah. The attacks came after weeks of unsuccessful negotiations to extend the ceasefire and secure the release of remaining hostages.

The latest flare up in the Israel vs. Palestine conflict that first kicked off on Oct. 7, 2023 reminded people about the depraved nature of the Jewish state. Moreover, it has demonstrated that despite what many self-styled “experts” have long posited, international conflicts go beyond economics and simple transactions.

We shouldn’t forget that one of the precipitating factors behind Hamas’ decision to launch the October 7 attacks was the first Trump administration’s move to get Arab countries such as Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, and the United Arab Emirates to normalize relations with Israel.

At the time, the Trump administration used its transactional approach to geopolitics to win these countries over. The agreements facilitated significant arms deals, particularly with Bahrain and UAE. As part of the normalization process, the UAE received 50 F-35 fighter jets and 18 armed Reaper drone systems in a $23.37 billion arms deal approved by the Trump administration that had the aim of improving the Gulf Arab state’s security position vis-a-vis Iran.

For its part, Sudan agreed to normalize relations in exchange for the United States lifting sanctions and removing it from the U.S. terror list, while Morocco normalized ties in exchange for the United States to recognize its sovereignty over Western Sahara.

To sweeten the deal, Western leaders promised Arab countries bountiful economic opportunities if they made amends with Israel. The RAND Foundation projected that when fully realized, the Abraham Accords could create up to 4 million new jobs and generate $1 trillion in new economic activity within its first decade of implementation. Indeed, the Abraham Accords opened opportunities for increased trade and investment. In the first seven months of 2021, trade between Israel and Arab countries grew by 234 percent compared to the same period in 2020.

The economic benefits are all fine and dandy. But on the issue of Israel’s occupation of Palestine, the interests of Palestinians could not be overlooked. Above all, Hamas was not going to let geopolitical wheeling-and-dealing sidestep their struggle.

The drift to Arab normalization threatened Hamas’s position and dampened support from the broader Arab world. As Gulf States normalized relations with Israel, Palestinians gradually lost influential patrons and diplomatic partners. Hamas saw this as an unacceptable scenario and sought to refocus global attention on the Palestinian cause by attacking Israel. By provoking a punitive response from Israel, Hamas aimed to generate widespread anti-Israel backlash from the Arab world. And from the looks of it, the Arab Street is fuming.

Even before October 7, polls showed that 76 percent of respondents from the Arab world, spanning the Maghreb all the way to the Gulf, still viewed the Palestinian cause as an Arab cause. Although the Abraham Accords signatories have not wavered in their partnership with Israel, broader Arab opinion towards Israel has dampened since October 7. In a poll carried out by the Washington Institute in late 2023, 96 percent of Arab respondents agreed with the idea that “Arab countries should immediately break all diplomatic, political, economic, and any other contacts with Israel, in protest against its military action in Gaza.”

Saudi Arabia, one of the United States’ loyal vassal states in the region and Israel’s silent strategic partner, was rumored to have been on the path towards normalizing ties with Israel. However, the Saudis have remained adamant that they will not normalize ties with Israel until the Jewish state takes clear steps toward establishing a Palestinian state​. Moreover, a Doha Institute poll published in January 2024, found that 68 percent of Saudis were against the Saudi monarchy recognizing Israel. At this juncture, any Saudi leader who is caught publicly meeting up with Netanyahu to consummate the normalization of bilateral relations with the Jewish state is asking for trouble in the form of generalized unrest or even intrigue in the Saudi royal court – a ruling structure that still has a strong pro-Palestinian faction within its ranks.

Despite campaigns by Israel and its American sugar daddy to clean up the Jewish state’s image worldwide, its immediate neighbors also remain firmly opposed to officially recognizing Israel. A 2024 poll conducted by the Arab Center Washington DC found that 83 percent of Jordanians and 89 percent of Egyptians oppose diplomatic recognition of Israel as of February 2024. Morocco, a signatory of the Abraham Accords and an Arab country that is not as fanatically anti-Israel as other countries in the region, saw its population’s support for a two-state solution grow from 41 percent in 2023 to 48 percent in 2024.

On the whole, all Arab governments, including those that normalized with Israel and those who harbor notable antipathy to the Muslim Brotherhood — the organization that ideologically inspired Hamas — still officially endorse a two-state solution. The livestream genocide of thousands of innocent women and children in Gaza has hardened even the most lukewarm of Arab populations.

No matter how vigorously foreign policy experts deny it, the strong gods of blood and soil are alive and well in the arena of geopolitics. During a time when the liberal international order is breaking down, all manner of ethnic groups with scores yet to be settled will be itching to carry out reprisals against long-time enemies. Payback is the coin of the realm in politics.

Pace Donald Trump and his Middle East team, the solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict will not be found in the Art of the Deal. Nor will buying off Palestinians or building swanky resorts on their homelands miraculously resolve this existential struggle. As the recent flareup in Gaza shows, a peaceful settlement continues to be an elusive goal.

The Trump administration should tread lightly here. One false move could spark a regional conflagration that the United States can’t afford to get ensnared in.

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